Photokina and the Sony user response

A lot of us were hoping for just a little more from Sony at Photokina. Specifically I think we wanted a) some details on the A700 replacement and b) a lens - any lens - for the A mount. Instead we got some promises and poor mockups we've seen before. As a result there is a lot of angst on the Sony forums at the moment and I for one fully understand it. In fact, I've been so put off all the forums that I have, by and large dropped out of them (except for posting this at Dyxum today). This post isnt really intended to resolve much, rather just put out a perspective that might calm peoples ire and cool down the debate a little.

We see constant calls (and I have made them as well) for Sony to be more open with its users, give us a better road map, give us confidence that the system is going somewhere so that we can have faith in future investments in the system. Personally I feel caught between decisions in so many ways, a-mount vs e-mount, APS vs FF, existing screw lenses vs rumoured SSM variants, stay with Sony or shift to Nikon? I'm pretty ambivalent on the whole EVF vs OVF debate but I understand others are very invested in this and thats causing them considerable concern.

Given what can really only be described as the collapse of the 4/3s format (well described by PT here) I'm not one of those people that advise others to simply ignore this and go out and take photos. This is a real issue and one that shouldnt be ignored.

But on the other hand I also understand Sony's dilemma. It has learnt a hard lesson, that in a head to head, fair fight it cant beat Nikon and Canon. Sony isnt Pentax, prepared to hover around the fringes, being a respected niche brand, it has bigger ambitions. Those systems have too much built up expertise, too much system infrastructure, too much brand power and too many rusted on users. To try and go to war with those guys in the current DSLR market will mean years of trench warfare with an uncertain result and the possibility of only winning a pyrrhic victory as there is a strong chance that in 10 years time the current DSLR market might not be one worth being in. If I were running Sony I would also be looking for the game changer too, the thing that makes the fight between Sony and Canon/Nikon unfair in a way that suits me.

So in this context the E-mount, the move to SLT's, the possible ditching of the OVF all together starts to make enormous sense. And lets quickly look at some of the market indications we are seeing. After years of struggle, getting no-where in the Japanese market with a traditional SLR strategy, within a month the NEX achieved what Sony never managed with the 'old' A-mount formula. After years of at best mediocre, at worst outright damning reviews, Sony cameras are being hailed and people like MR over at Luminous Landscape who has described the A55 as one of the most important cameras ever. Finally, it appears the market has spoken with stories that the 'traditional' A560 DSLR is being delayed because demand for the new mirrorless/SLT formats is so great its consuming all available sensors.

I think the market is also showing us that no one out there is capable of doing it all at once. The 4/3s consortium clearly couldnt manage that format and develop the M4/3s. Samsung appear to have given up any pretension to traditional DSLR formats. Nikon has been rumoured to have a mirrorless concept coming for ages but seems to be getting no where and every day they delay more people buy an NEX an enter the Sony universe (my estimate less than 40% of NEX users at flickr came from Sony), while Canon might just be playing a very stealthy game but on the surface it looks to be a complete non-player in the mirrorless world right now instead just soldiering on with an warm over of the G series compacts. If the predictions from Samsung are right (and they have proven to be pretty savvy commercially) then Canon and Nikon could find themselves kings of very small and insignificant kingdoms in not to long.

Considering all this doesnt make me happy, it doesnt help me figure out where I will go or what I will do next. But, for me, thinking through my problem undeerstanding the realities of the world lessens my emotional investment and helps me think more clearly.

None of this is intended to make people stay with Sony. If you need to go to another mount for professional or creative reasons my recommendation is to go. Sony is juggling a lot of balls right now and I for one have no confidence that they will deliver exactly what anyone wants when they want it. But my other piece of advice (or perhaps plea) is that people accept the Godfather principle; this is strictly business, not personal. If Sony's business and yours go in different directions for a while, thats business, no need to go to the mattresses.

How little the NEX still system needs

There has been a lot of discussion on the internet about the place of the NEX series, particularly in light of how small the latest A33 and A55 from Sony are. In particular there has been some discussion that the NEX adventure is largely unnessary and will further dilute Sony's resources to develop the A-mount. I disagee.

When thinking about the A and E mounts I am reminded, very strongly, of Contax which ran a 'full' SLR line-up (albeit only the C/Y manual mount was what we would call 'full' these days) and a 'full' and mature rangefinder range. If we consider the NEX 3 and NEX 5 as spiritual successors to the Contax G series (which I do) it is really instructive to remember just how small the Contax G RF lens line-ups were. The entire Contax G mount range was:

Hologon 16/8

Biogon 21/2.8

Biogon 28/2.8

Planar 35/2

Planar 45/2

Sonnar 90/2.8

Vario-Sonnar 35–70/3.5–5.6

Thats it - 7 lenses.

Even looking at the much more mature and well supported Leica M mount there are only 11 basic focal lengths (albeit in some lengths there are a variety of speeds) although to be really fair we should also note that the Leicas are all manual focus and with the addition of a very cheap adapter can be used on the NEX series.

So, using the Contax G as a 'model' range what would an E mount lens line-up require (I'm assuming a 1.5 crop factor but not worrying about DOF issues of an APS sensor) the rough 35mm FF equivalent is shown in parenthesis also.

10 (15/16)

14 (20)

16 (24)

20 (28/30)

24 (35)

30 (45/50)

60 (90)

Now given that the 35-80ish zooms are now longer very fashionable I'd suggest something like:

16-50 (24-75)

Also, considering the need for video, we also need a superzoom, say:

18-250 (28-380)

So if we got all that we would have replicated the entire Contax G range and be only a few lenses short of everything Leica has deemed necessary after almost 70 years. Thats not a lot and only a small investment for a company like Sony to produce. So instead of thinking of the E mount as a competitor to the A mount we should see it as a compliment and instead of worrying about how it diverts resources from the A-mount we should be pleased that a system that requires so little can bring so much to the Alpha community.

Rumours - the bane of the Sony Shooter

In a prior post I spoke about the spectacular angst of the Sony shooter and the special anger we can feel towards our own mount. Another manifestation of this unique relationship with our mount is a really pronounced sensitivity to rumours.

The Sony Alpha community is riven with concern that at any moment our "parent" will decide that the passion is gone and walk away. So like uncertain children we are constantly searching for signs that we are still loved, that we are still the ones Sony wants to please. So we pounce on anything, any little error in a web site menu, any obscure reference in a firmware referencing system, any reference in an interview.

Well we are getting pretty hot under the collar right now. Word is that three new camera's are getting close. They are the A500, A550 and A850.

Tomorrow I might spend a bit of time guessing precise specs but fro now this is basically how I think its likely to work.

1 the A500 will be the A700 shrunk a little, cleaned up a little, etc

2. the A550 will be the A550 with an upgraded sensor.

so far nothing novel. But,

3. the A850 will be an uber APS body, using the A550 sensor but perhaps with features that actually take it well past the A900. With a D300 like price pushing towards $1800-1900. This gives Sony a vehicle to get advances in AF, metering, video, LV - god knows, onto the market in a form that doesnt detract too much from the A900 which remains the king of the hill simply by virtue of being FF.

4. We wont get a 7 series for a while - the Sony line-up will look a bit like the Nikon set-up with a similar gap between the A550 and A850 as the D90 and D300. Simply recycling the 7 series would create all sorts of problems as people would be confused as the new 7xx would cost up to double the price of the 700 it replaced.

Of course I'm almost certainly wrong.